Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 150109
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
909 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

...VALID 03Z WED APR 15 2015 - 00Z THU APR 16 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SE TLH AAF 70 E KVOA 35 SE KVOA 15 SSE KVOA 25 N KVOA NPA
25 WNW OZR 20 SW LSF 40 ESE LSF 30 ENE ABY MGR 25 SE TLH.


...EASTERN GULF COAST...

EARLY ACTIVITY THAT PRODUCED HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS ACRS PARTS OF
THE CNTL/ERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE THE FACT THAT STGR SMALL TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE DVLPD
OFFSHORE IN THE SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL INFLOW..AND THIS WILL LIKELY
IMPEDE ANY FURTHER ORGANIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT FOR MUCH OF
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACRS THE ERN GULF COAST.  HOWEVER CAN NOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME THREAT OF HEAVIER PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINS ACRS
PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN AL/GA
ON WED AS MODELS BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF HIER PW AIR IN DEEP
LAYERED SW FLOW TOWARD THE REGION BY MRNG. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT AXIS OF 1.75 PLUS
PWS COULD ONCE AGAIN PRIME THE REGION FOR SOME HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL RATES DURING THE DAY.  MODELS DO INDICATE REGION WILL BE
UNDER WEAK RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF URP JET..BUT AT THE SAME TIME
SOME OF THE BETTER CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY ORGANIZE AGAIN OFFSHORE
LIMITING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INLAND.  QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
EXISTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE HERE BUT BLV THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT IN
THE HI RES MODELS TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK ACRS THIS
AREA.

...KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC...

THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH ACRS THIS
AREA AS S/WV FEATURE AS SEEN ON ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO APCH
THE MID ATLC COAST..WITH MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR SPREADING ACRS
THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  A FEW SCTD HEAVIER
TSTMS MAY STILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SWD SINKING COLD FRONT THRU THE
EVENING HOURS BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ORGANIZED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT.


SULLIVAN
$$




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