Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 121915
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-141915-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
215 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED OVER THE LAST WEEK...

SYNOPSIS...

RAINFALL DURING EARLY MARCH HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAINFALL DURING THE FALL AND
WINTER WAS GREAT NEWS IN TERMS OF IMPROVING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
MOST SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS HAVE BEEN ELIMINATED...EXCEPT
WATER RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR MANY LOCALITIES. A FEW COUNTIES
CONTINUE WITH COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS AS WELL. SOME RANCHERS WERE
REPORTING THAT STOCK TANKS REMAIN LOW DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION.
THE WETTER CONDITIONS IN JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY ALLOWED FOR
SOME RUNOFF TO TAKE PLACE INTO THE RIVERS AND THIS HELPED TO
PROVIDE SMALL RISES ON AREA LAKES. MOST LAKES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS REMAIN WELL BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS DESPITE THE
INCREASED RAINFALL. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE
HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES... RESERVOIRS
AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE
CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A WEAK EL NINO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE SUMMER. EL NINO LIKE IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO
EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...
SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS
WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID MARCH 10TH AND ISSUED ON
MARCH 12TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME
(D3) DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU ARE CURRENTLY IN EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT
STATUS.

CURRENTLY 41 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND 3 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN
FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF MARCH 12TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 5
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
DEWITT
MEDINA
UVALDE
VAL VERDE

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA   HAYS
BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KERR
BURNET     KINNEY
CALDWELL   LAVACA
COMAL      LEE
DIMMIT     LLANO
EDWARDS    MAVERICK
FAYETTE    REAL
FRIO       TRAVIS
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
GONZALES   WILSON
GUADALUPE  ZAVALA


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE MARCH 12TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200       200-300     300-400     400-500

BASTROP     ATASCOSA    BANDERA     DIMMIT
BEXAR       GILLESPIE   EDWARDS
BLANCO      KENDALL     FRIO
BURNET      LLANO       KERR
CALDWELL                KINNEY
COMAL                   MAVERICK
DEWITT                  MEDINA
FAYETTE                 REAL
GONZALES                UVALDE
GUADALUPE               VAL VERDE
HAYS                    ZAVALA
KARNES
LAVACA
LEE
TRAVIS
WILLIAMSON
WILSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
INDICATED THE REGION HAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
SHOWERS. THE WET WEATHER KEPT FARMERS FROM PLANTING BUT IMPROVED
RANGELAND CONDITIONS. LAMBING AND KIDDING CONTINUED. LIVESTOCK
WERE IN FAIR CONDITION UNDER SUPPLEMENTATION. THE COLD WEATHER
STRESSED WILDLIFE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2015 TO MIDNIGHT MARCH 11, 2015 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2015       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       8.54        5.21       +3.33         164%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   8.13        5.43       +2.70         150%
SAN ANTONIO        5.78        4.39       +1.39         132%
DEL RIO            1.25        2.02       -0.77          62%

FOR MARCH TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.26 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.16 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.42 OF AN INCH. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH TO DATE IS 53.2 DEGREES. THIS IS
8.5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 61.7 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 1.58 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.74 OF AN INCH ABOVE
THE NORMAL OF 0.84 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN
ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MARCH TO DATE IS 50.5 DEGREES.
THIS IS 9.3 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 59.8 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 3.02 INCHES OF
RAIN. THIS IS 2.05 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 0.97 OF AN
INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR MARCH TO DATE
IS 48.0 DEGREES. THIS IS 11.2 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 59.2
DEGREES.

FOR MARCH TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 2.39 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.47 INCHES ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF 0.92 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MARCH TO DATE IS 47.0
DEGREES. THIS IS 9.5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 56.5 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED MARCH 13 AND VALID MARCH 20 THROUGH MARCH 26 WAS INDICATING
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2015 THROUGH JUNE 2015...
CREATED ON FEBRUARY 19TH WAS INDICATING NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...BELOW OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

DUE TO THE CONTINUED PERIODIC LIGHT RAINFALL MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
SEEN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION SINCE THE BEGINNING OF
JANUARY. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL HAS CAUSED
LAKE LEVELS TO RISE SLIGHTLY. IT WILL TAKE MANY RAINFALL EVENTS
TO GET THE LAKE LEVELS BACK TO NORMAL CONSERVATION POOLS.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE AND SAN ANTONIO BASINS. THE COLORADO BASIN REPORTED
NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) TO ABOVE NORMAL (76-90 PERCENT) FLOWS.
THE GUADALUPE...MEDINA...NUECES REPORTED BELOW (10-24 PERCENT)
STREAM FLOW AVERAGES. THE FRIO BASIN REPORTED MUCH BELOW (<10 PERCENT)
FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 12TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                1087.8           -29.2
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2               974.5           -89.7
CANYON LAKE          909                 897.8           -11.2
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                 781.2            -9.8
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                 987.4           -32.6
LAKE TRAVIS          681                 626.5           -54.5

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2014 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   FEBRUARY   DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2014   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 646.1 FT      642.6 FT     +3.5 FT    668.6 FT     -22.5 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY IN A NO DROUGHT STATUS.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 2
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 2
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MARCH 26 2015 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS 78130
830-606-3617

$$



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