Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 021657
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-041700-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1157 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED...

SYNOPSIS...

RAINFALL DURING MARCH WAS ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. IN ADDITION TO BEING WETTER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL. THIS IS TYPICAL IN AN EL
NINO PATTERN. DUE TO THE RAINFALL MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCED
DURING MARCH...SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ABSENT OR VERY
MINIMAL. WATER RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MANY LOCATIONS
DUE TO THE LONG TERM IMPACTS OF THE DROUGHT. SOME RANCHERS WERE
STILL REPORTING THAT STOCK TANKS REMAIN LOW DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION. THE WETTER CONDITIONS IN MARCH DID PRODUCE SOME
RUNOFF INTO THE RIVERS AND THIS HELPED TO PROVIDE SMALL RISES ON
AREA LAKES. MOST LAKES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN WELL
BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS DESPITE THE INCREASED RAINFALL.
LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A
MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES... RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS
ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE
FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING A 50-60
PERCENT CHANCE THAT A WEAK EL NINO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER. EL NINO LIKE IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS
ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...SO WE SHOULD
NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID MARCH 31ST AND ISSUED ON
APRIL 2ND INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME
(D3) DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU ARE CURRENTLY IN EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT
STATUS.

CURRENTLY 37 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND 3 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT
OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF APRIL 2ND...A COUNTY-WIDE BURN BAN WAS IN EFFECT FOR ONE
COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTY WITH AN ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BAN WAS:

VAL VERDE

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA   HAYS
BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KERR
BEXAR      KINNEY
BURNET     LAVACA
CALDWELL   LEE
COMAL      LLANO
DEWITT     MAVERICK
DIMMIT     MEDINA
EDWARDS    REAL
FAYETTE    TRAVIS
FRIO       UVALDE
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
GONZALES   WILSON
GUADALUPE  ZAVALA


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE APRIL 2ND COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200       200-300     300-400

ATASCOSA    DIMMIT      BANDERA
BASTROP     EDWARDS     KERR
BEXAR       FRIO
BLANCO      GILLESPIE
BURNET      KENDALL
CALDWELL    LLANO
COMAL       MAVERICK
DEWITT      MEDINA
FAYETTE     REAL
GONZALES    UVALDE
GUADALUPE   VAL VERDE
HAYS        ZAVALA
KARNES
KINNEY
LAVACA
LEE
TRAVIS
WILLIAMSON
WILSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
INDICATED RECENT RAINS AND SUNNY CONDITIONS JUMP STARTED SPRING
GROWTH. GRASSES WERE STARTING TO GROW. SOIL MOISTURE REMAINED HIGH
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SOME CORN EMERGED...AND THE PLANTING OF
SORGHUM WOULD RESUME AS FIELD CONDITIONS ALLOWED. TEMPERATURES
WERE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE HAD
BETTER GRAZING...BUT STILL MAY NEED TO BE SUPPLEMENTED UNTIL FULL
SPRING CONDITIONS ARRIVE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2015 TO MIDNIGHT APRIL 1, 2015 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2015       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      10.35        7.07       +3.28         146%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   9.78        7.36       +2.42         133%
SAN ANTONIO        7.17        5.92       +1.25         121%
DEL RIO            3.20        2.78       +0.42         115%

FOR MARCH...DEL RIO RECEIVED 2.21 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS WAS 1.07
INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 1.14 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
FOR MARCH WAS 62.6 DEGREES. THIS WAS 1.5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL
OF 64.1 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED 2.97 INCHES
OF RAIN. THIS WAS 0.66 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 2.31 INCHES.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
FOR MARCH WAS 60.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS 1.3 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL
OF 62.2 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH...AUSTIN MABRY RECEIVED 4.83 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS WAS
2.07 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 2.76 INCHES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR MARCH WAS 60.2 DEGREES. THIS WAS
1.5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 61.7 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED 4.04
INCHES OF RAIN. THIS WAS 1.26 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 2.78
INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MARCH WAS 58.3 DEGREES. THIS WAS 0.9
OF A DEGREE BELOW THE NORMAL OF 59.2 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED APRIL 1 AND VALID APRIL 9 THROUGH APRIL 15 WAS INDICATING
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2015 THROUGH JUNE 2015...
CREATED ON MARCH 19TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

DUE TO THE CONTINUED PERIODIC RAINFALL MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION SINCE THE BEGINNING OF
JANUARY. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO RISE
SLIGHTLY. IT WILL TAKE MANY RAINFALL EVENTS TO GET THE LAKE LEVELS
BACK TO NORMAL CONSERVATION POOLS.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE AND SAN ANTONIO BASINS. THE COLORADO BASIN
REPORTED ABOVE NORMAL (76-90 PERCENT) FLOWS ACROSS TRAVIS COUNTY
AND BELOW (10-24 PERCENT) AVERAGE STREAM FLOWS ELSEWHERE. THE
GUADALUPE AND FRIO RIVER BASINS REPORTED BELOW (10-24 PERCENT)
STREAM FLOW AVERAGES. THE MEDINA AND NUECES BASINS REPORTED MUCH
BELOW (<10 PERCENT) FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF APRIL 2ND...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                1088.2           -28.8
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2               974.6           -89.6
CANYON LAKE          909                 897.9           -11.1
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                 780.6           -10.4
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                 988.0           -32.0
LAKE TRAVIS          681                 628.2           -52.8

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2014 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   APRIL     DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2014   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 646.2 FT      639.9 FT     +6.3 FT    667.2 FT     -21.0 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY IN A NO DROUGHT STATUS.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 2
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 2
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND APRIL 16 2015 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS 78130
830-606-3617

$$


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