Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 180304
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
800 PM MST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WEEKEND...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND LOWERED SNOW LEVELS A
BIT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AS PROGS HAVE ONE MORE VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CHUSKA MTNS
ABOVE 7000 FEET.

&&
PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED FOR TONIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS LOWERED A
BIT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AS PROGS HAVE ONE MORE VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CHUSKA MTNS
ABOVE 7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWS WARMER AIR AT
ALL LEVELS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND.

PROGS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LOW MOVING INTO ARIZONA IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME
FRAME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 321 PM

OVER THE WEEKEND...ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EASTWARD
AND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE
WARMS AND DRIES. JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR A
FEW AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE MAY
CAUSE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE HIGH
BASED WITH MOST RAINFALL EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

FROM MONDAY ONWARD...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE REGION IS BRIEFLY AFFECTED BY A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY
AROUND MID WEEK...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
BE IN FOR A ROUND OF DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
AS UPPER TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS MOST OF NRN AZ. TIL 15Z SAT...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY IN -SHRA/ -SHSN SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF A LINE FROM
KPGA-KRQE.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH
DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS. A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING LIGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL / RR
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











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