Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 050409
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. INCREASING WINDS AND
CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN WEST CENTRAL AZ THIS
EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW FROM FLAGSTAFF
WEST...AND ALSO NEAR THE 4 CORNERS. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
POP FIELDS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD WANE TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS SINCE
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME CENTERED NEAR LAS
VEGAS. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THIS FEATURE...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE LOW PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA...IT WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AREAS ABOVE
8000 FEET COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR EVEN ALL SNOW DEPENDING ON
HOW LOW HEIGHTS FALL. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO DO NOT THINK
MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS BROAD
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHRA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA. EXPECT SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 30 KTS ALSO POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. DRIER WEATHER TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAIR WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FASTER
WINDS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/TM
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...DL



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