Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 041136
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
436 AM MST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND
TUESDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. INCREASING WINDS AND CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TODAY, AS INSTABILITY
AND LIFT INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE ARE FORECAST, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM AND IN YAVAPAI COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA. LONGER TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT, THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUTFLOW SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST NEAR SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE OUTFLOW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION....BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN


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