Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 051130
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
430 AM MST TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ARIZONA. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING WINDS, COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS
BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST US IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND MOVING EASTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, EXITING THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK OF
THE LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER.

THURSDAY ONWARD...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FOREAST TO DROP
DOWN THE WEST COAST BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND INCREASED WINDS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA BEFORE EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINLY WITH REGARDS TO SNOW LEVELS, BUT AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE SNOW MAY FALL TO AS LOW AS THE 7500 FOOT LEVEL ON
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST PLACES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERTURES ARE FORECAST
TO QUICKLY REBOUND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, OUTFLOWS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT ERRATIC WINDS WITH
OUTFLOWS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN THE VICINITY OF STRONGER STORMS.
DRIER WEATHER TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY AND COOL WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST PLACES ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FASTER
WINDS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION....RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


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