Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172221
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
321 PM MST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT CONTINUED ISOLATED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. BEGINNING SATURDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER SHOWERS AS A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS EVENING...THE COLD CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
COLORADO. A WEATHER DISTUBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EASTWARD
AND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE
WARMS AND DRIES. JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR A
FEW AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE MAY
CAUSE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE HIGH
BASED WITH MOST RAINFALL EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

FROM MONDAY ONWARD...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE REGION IS BRIEFLY AFECTED BY A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY
AROUND MID WEEK...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
BE IN FOR A ROUND OF DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
AS UPPER TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND STARTING
ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH
DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS. A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING LIGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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