Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 162236
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
336 PM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SITS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. BEGINNING
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
DECREASE AS A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY COLD UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED 500 MB COLD POOL IS AROUND
-29C...WHICH IS QUITE UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SIT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CAUSING A
COLD...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY
DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL...HOWEVER...A VORT
MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW MORNING GIVEN GREATER CLOUD
COVER...WARMER 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING
TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA WHERE THE
GREATEST MOISTURE AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP OVER
THE REGION. DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS MODELS FORECAST THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
QUITE DRY...SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE HIGH BASED WITH MOST
RAINFALL EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT NORTHERN ARIZONA MAY BE
IN FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5500 NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AREA TO 6500 FEET
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 6500 TO 7500
FEET ON FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEK DISTURBANCES COULD
BRING VERY LIGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO THE REGION...DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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