Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242239
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
339 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR
AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
CU/TCU/SC WITH BASES FROM 3-5KFT AGL...SCT BASES 1-3KFT AGL. SCT
-SHRA AND -TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS SW 15-25G30KTS THROUGH
02Z SATURDAY AND AGAIN AFT 18Z SATURDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...SNOW PELLETS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
DISTRICT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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