Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 070414
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM FLAGSTAFF WEST ON FRIDAY AND TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN FAR
NORTHERN AZ IS DISSIPATING AND SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. FAIR WEATHER
ELSEWHERE...NO FORECAST UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN
AZ THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEVELOPS AND DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS AZ. ON FRIDAY
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/
SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN AZ.
30-50% CHC`S OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EAST TO AROUND
FLAGSTAFF BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ON
SATURDAY. FORECAST SNOW LEVELS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE IN
THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE FROM FLAGSTAFF WEST LATE FRIDAY AND THEN
FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AZ BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL AND FORECAST QPF
ARE FROM 0.05 -0.20 INCH LIQUID AND AREAS ABOVE 7000 FEET IN WESTERN
AZ MAY SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING...AND SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH NO APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION.

CLEARING MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES BRINGING WITH
IT FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER MONDAY - WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THE KGCN TERMINAL...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY. CONTINUED CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES IN.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/TC
AVIATION....JJ
FIRE WEATHER...CLM



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