Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 161028
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. CLEARING MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY COLD UPPER LOW (H5 TEMPS AT -30C) IS CENTERED
OVER SRN UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING
THE LOW CENTER INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY...WITH A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD MOVE INTO COCONINO COUNTY BY
LATE MORNING...THE SECOND MOVES ACROSS THE AZ UT BORDER THIS
EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WERE RAISED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40 THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE TEMPS IN THIS AIRMASS AND THE
VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...SCATTERED SNOW SOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS LOW AS 5000 FEET THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY. PER MODELS...OUR
FORECAST QPFS ARE LESS THAN 0.05" FOR ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD AND ONLY
EXPECTING TRACE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TODAY TO
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE...WITH THE GREATEST
DIFFERENCE IN THE FOUR CORNERS.

INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE DECREASE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ. PRECIP CHANCES RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TO 10-20 PERCENT ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
NEAR 0 IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. CLEARING SPREADS FURTHER EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF A KGCN TO
KRQE LINE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5000-6000 FEET. WINDS N TO NW 10-20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM...AND ESPECIALLY NEAREST THE UTAH BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EVEN COLDER TODAY...WARMING SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.
















.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.