Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010344
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST THU APR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...REDUCING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING.
FURTHERMORE...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND...INCREASED THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY. WITH THE DEEP MIXING, GETTING PLENTY OF
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS, BUT THEY ARE TOO
SHALLOW FOR THE MOST PART TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. BY FRIDAY,
THE RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY SHIFT WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TODAY. MODELS INDICATE A BIT MORE MOISTURE OVER THE
WHITE MTNS, POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
POSSIBLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTHWARD
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST LOW TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS.
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM KSOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WHITE MTNS AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES
OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL RETURN TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......TM
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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