Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012217
AFDFGZ

AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST FRI MAY 1 2015

COR SYNOPSIS AND WEDNESDAY PORTION OF DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS NORTHER ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION... WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
THE STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THESE CELLS TOWARDS THE
NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEASURED PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN LESS THN 0.05", BUT ST JOHNS HAD AN OUTFLOW WIND GUST TO 35 MPH

THERE ARE TWO LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATIONS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE FIRST
IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO AND IS ALREADY SPREADING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. PROGS CAPTURED THE BULK OF
TODAY CONVECTION OK AND FOR THE WEEKEND ARE SPREADING THE AFTERNOON
NEGATIVE LI`S FURTHER NORTHWEST. THUS NEARLY ALL OF THE NORTHLAND
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS OR VIRGA SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PROGS SHOW THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
INHERITED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM  LOOK OK FOR NOW. THIS COULD BE
ANOTHER 0.10-0.40 PRECIP EVENT FOR THE RIM AND WILL MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS NEED TO GO UP.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. WE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN APACHE COUNTY IN
FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS MODEL SUITE AND THE ECMWF HAVE A COLD UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
LEAST GUSTY SW WINDS WOULD RETURN STARTING THURSDAY. WE PUT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...GENERALLY...VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. EXPECT SCT-BKN130-150 OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...KGCN-KFLG-KD68 THROUGH 02Z AND AGAIN 18Z-00Z SATURDAY.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREAS. SFC WINDS LIGHT SW 5-
15KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DISTRICT BY
SATURDAY. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLD...HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND GREATER COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY. GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT A COOLING TREND AND
STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. DESPITE THIS...MOST AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER ONLY A LOW
POSSIBILITY OF ANY WETTING RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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