Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171020
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES AND A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SITS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. BEGINNING SATURDAY...EXPECT
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND FEWER SHOWERS AS A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING...WILL
SLOWLY WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THIS LOW OVERNIGHT BROUGHT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA
INCLUDING THE GRAND CANYON AND FLAGSTAFF WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
A TRACE TO HALF AN INCH REPORTED. THIS SAME WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER FROM ABOUT WINSLOW
AND PAYSON EASTWARD UNTIL AROUND 9 AM THIS MORNING. THE SNOW LEVEL
WITH THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL RANGE FROM 5000-6000 FEET. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WARMER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA WHERE THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN PRESENTING THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER ARIZONA.
JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUD
BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. A BIT MORE MOISTURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
QUITE DRY...SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE HIGH BASED WITH MOST RAINFALL
EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. WITH A WARMER AIR MASS
MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STARTING WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE GFS IS SHOWING DOWNRIGHT CHILLY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
MILD WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY BUT EVENTUALLY BRINGING IN
SHOWERY WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF I-40
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING RANGING FROM 5000
FT TO 6500 FT MSL...RAISING TO 7000-8000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST SATURDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FOUR CORNERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD
BRING VERY LIGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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