Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 040414
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. INCREASING WINDS AND CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE MID EVENING. ALL ON TRACK WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

HOWEVER, AFTER MIDNIGHT RAIN CHANCES START TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO
IMPORT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
AND COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT FROM THE LOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY
WE SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY, CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 0.20 TO 0.60 INCH
RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GREATLY DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA. LONGER TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW, THE MAIN EFFECTS
ARE LIKELY TO BE CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
WINDS. RIGHT NOW, FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST AND WINDIEST DAY.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST IN NW ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 12Z. AFT
12Z...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA...DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
KPRC THEN SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EXCEED 40 MPH BOTH THIS EVENING AND MONDAY.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRYING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. 20 FOOT WINDS SPEEDS TO INCREASE THOUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE DISTRICT.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM/DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.