Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020359
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
856 PM MST FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. SEVERAL HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CURVED OUTFLOW CONVERGENCE
BANDS, A REMNANT OF EARLY EVENING CONVECTION, BRINGING VARIABLE
WINDS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY GENERATE COLD OUTFLOW WINDS
PRODUCING ERRATIC AND GUSTY WIND AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A MINOR UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST GRID PACKAGE.
WE INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PROGS SHOW THE
SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE INHERITED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM LOOK OK FOR
NOW. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER 0.10-0.40 PRECIP EVENT FOR THE RIM AND
WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS NEED TO GO UP.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. WE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN APACHE COUNTY IN
FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS MODEL SUITE AND THE ECMWF HAVE A COLD UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
LEAST GUSTY SW WINDS WOULD RETURN STARTING THURSDAY. WE PUT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER FOR NOW.

&&

AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY NEAR
STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DISTRICT BY
SATURDAY. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLD...HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND GREATER COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY. GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT A COOLING TREND AND
STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. DESPITE THIS...MOST AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER ONLY A LOW
POSSIBILITY OF ANY WETTING RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/DL
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.