Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 150351
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...BE PREPARED FOR COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH ARIZONA TONIGHT. LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
25 MPH DURING THE EVENING SHIFTING TO WEST TO NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. A FEW UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR MID EVENING CONDITIONS BUT OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

THE TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA
LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE
STATE WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR SW WINDS 10-25 KT
SHIFTING TO W-NW BY 12Z. AFTER 18Z SURFACE WINDS NW 5-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM KSOW EASTWARD WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35
KT NEAR ANY SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS HEADED TOWARDS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. LOOKS FOR A 5 MPH INCREASE IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA...WHICH IS BASICALLY NORTH OF I-40 EXCEPT
THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT TO SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
WITH DECREASING SPEEDS. HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THIS AREA WILL SEE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AGAIN AND HAVE A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
PRIMARILY TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. MAX TEMPS TO
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN START A WARMING
TREND FRIDAY

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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