Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211552
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 AM MST TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DELIVER COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC
LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. AMERICAN GFS AND EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING IMPROVED CONSISTENCY WITH THE LATEST RUN FOR THE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

THE MORNING WEATHER FORECAST LOOKS GOOD NO UPDATES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS, EXPECTED
TO WOBBLE AROUND TO THE WEST OF ARIZONA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
POSITION OF THE LOW WILL PLACE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER ARIZONA. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DRYING OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GENERALLY FEWER AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CALIFORNIA LOW HEADING
ACROSS ARIZONA. THE RESULTING INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN MOVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS ARIZONA AND WARMER
AIR ALOFT. FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IF WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WILL BE DIMINISHED COMPARED TO CURRENT
GRIDDED FORECAST. MODEL UNCERTAINTIES ARE SUCH THAT WE WILL WAIT
ANOTHER RUN. IN ANY CASE, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS ARIZONA ON SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LINGERING
MOISTURE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARM/DRY AIR MASS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SCT-BKN HIGH-BASED
DAYTIME CU WITH SPOTTY VIRGA. SFC WINDS S-SW 10-20G30KT 18Z-02Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY.
EXPECT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COOLING TREND AND CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A DRYING TREND WILL
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON/MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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