Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 152206
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
306 PM MST WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT COOL WEATHER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER CENTRAL UTAH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTHWARD...CUT OFF...AND SIT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST PLACES ON
THURSDAY...WARMING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EASTWARD LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER...HOWEVER...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
REMAIN NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

FROM MONDAY ONWARD...THINGS BECOME MORE UNCLEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST...HOWEVER...POSSIBILITIES
EXIST THAT NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE AFFECTED BY A COUPLE WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCES. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...NW TO N WINDS WILL AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 5-15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXISTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
AZ...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF A LINE FROM KGCN TO KRQE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL UTAH WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND STALL OUT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO
AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TAKES HOLD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY WILL TURN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......CLM/RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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