Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201657
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DELIVER COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
TODAY WE WILL SEE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR
MOUNTAIN AREAS. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GRAND CANYON AND MOGOLLON RIM REGIONS IN
CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS
SURFACE HEATING DRIVES CONVECTION.

THE MORNING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD NO GRID UPDATES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS A DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT BUT ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOR TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
BORDER...OVER THE WHITE AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS. EVEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FOR TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR ZERO. AN
APPROACHING WEAK LOW WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALL-AND-ALL THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK OVER THIS PERIOD.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RESULTING INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING BACK OVER
ARIZONA. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG/EAST OF A
KGCN-KFLG-KSOW LINE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 30-35 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO WESTERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY...SPREADING
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A
COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......CLM/MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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