Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 292249
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
347 PM GMT WED APR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...REDUCING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN
BUILDING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE THE
NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS AND EXPECT TO SEE SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE WAY
OF TERRAIN DRIVEN CLOUDS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...ENHANCING CLOUD
COVER AND PROVIDING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND...OR THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY ONSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND ACROSS
ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR
BELOW THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
ISOLD HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM 19Z-02Z IN VICINITY OF THE
WHITE MTNS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO HAVE BASES
FROM 10-12KFT AGL. LIGHT SFC WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE DISTRICT. SOME
MINOR INCREASE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN PARTICULAR
SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD ASSOICATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD ON SATURDAY AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DISTRICT ON
BOTH AFTERNOONS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SC
AVIATION...SC
FIRE....SC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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