Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241551
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
851 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXPANDED ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE MORE BROAD TROUGH IS OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON A
STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /505 AM MST/...
A TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FROM SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASINGLY MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY WHICH SHOULD OFFSET THE WARMING ALOFT. SO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING, MOSTLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

A COLDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE DEEPENING LOW DIVES SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA
ON SATURDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH RESULTING IN HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHEN SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE AND SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LATEST FORECASTS ARE FOR A TRACE TO 2" OF SNOW IN THE 6500-8000 FOOT
ELEVATION RANGE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. LATEST
MODEL DATA NOW INDICATES A BIT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0.30" TO 0.60" RANGE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET, LOCALLY HEAVIER ALONG THE FAVORED
AREAS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD
PICK UP 0.10" TO 0.30". INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE LOW HEADS EAST MONDAY WHILE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
RETURN UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM UP TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
CU/TCU/SC WITH BASES FROM 3-5KFT AGL...SCT BASES 1-3KFT AGL. SCT
-SHRA AND -TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ESPECIALLY FROM 18Z-02Z
TODAY. SFC WINDS SW 15-25G30KTS 18Z-02Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...SNOW PELLETS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/JJ
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...MAS/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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