Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 141629
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO ARIZONA. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH ARIZONA BY LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY TODAY...A WIND ADVISORY
AND A RED FLAG WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA
LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE
STATE WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

ALL THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED...NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
24 HOUR PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SW WINDS TO 15-35 KT WITH
GUSTS 30-55 KT THROUGH SUNSET. FASTEST WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST NORTH OF A SELIGMAN TO KFLG TO KCEZ LINE. AT 03Z THE COLD FRONT
ALONG A LINE FROM KCEZ-KFLG-KPRC. SFC WINDS NORTH OF THIS LINE NW
10-20KT. SFC WINDS SW 10-20KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON FROM I-40 NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER...DUE TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH. AREAS SOUTH OF
I-40 WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS AT SLOWER SPEEDS. THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN START A WARMING TREND FRIDAY.  FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ104>107-109-110-112-139-140.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ004>007-009-010-012-015-039-040.


&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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