Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 011659
AFDFGZ

AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTIANS. THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL
EXPAND ACROSS NORTHER ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
 SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 405 AM...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION WHERE THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...GENERALLY OCCURRING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHORTWAVE MAY KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING
OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DISPLACED FURTHER
EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF STRONGER PACIFIC LOW.

FROM MONDAY ONWARD...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND REMAIN NEAR TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...GENERALLY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
BEING SCT-BKN CU/TCU WITH SCT-BKN130-150 INVOF THE WHITE MTNS FROM
18Z-02Z TODAY. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREAS. SFC
WINDS LIGHT SW 5-15KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PEAK TODAY...WITH THE AXIS MOVING
EAST OF THE DISTRICT BY SATURDAY. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING PATCHY...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION TO THE AREA BOTH DAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT A COOLING TREND AND
STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. DESPITE THIS...MOST AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER ONLY A LOW
POSSIBILITY OF ANY WETTING RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL /RR
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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