Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 290342
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS BY THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
PATTERN. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL A
GREAT WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD NO EVENING UPDATES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. ANOTHER
MORE PRONOUNCED DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THIS
FEATURE SLIGHTLY AND HAVE THUS CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH OF A FLAGSTAFF-WINDOW ROCK LINE THIS EVENING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED STATEWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARMING TREND
CONTINUES. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL RETURN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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