Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240347
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
847 PM MST THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PIVOT ACROSS
ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH
A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE LAST THUNDERSTORM FIZZLED OUT JUST NORTH OF MILE
MARKER 330 ALONG I-40 WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. DO NOT SEE ANY
INDICATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FIRST
PERIOD FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /354 PM MST/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF ARIZONA AND WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS WEAK LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK`S
END WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

A COLDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE DEEPENING LOW DIVES SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA
ON SATURDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE DYNAMIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE
AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER WEST AND
ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN THE TRACK WILL AFFECT RESULTING PRECIP
AMOUNTS.

THE LOW HEADS EAST MONDAY WHILE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
RETURN UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM UP TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CU BASES
FROM 5-8 KFT WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA WILL DEVELOP
PRIMARILY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
SFC WINDS SW 15-25KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z FRI. BRIEF MVFR AND
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL SWITCH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......TM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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