Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 301216 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
445 AM MST THU APR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...REDUCING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW CUMULUS BUILDUPS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL BE TODAY AND FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL
REACH 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE IN MOST SPOTS.

ENOUGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY FROM ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN OFF THE PACIFIC MONDAY AND ACROSS ARIZONA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CLOSER TO AVERAGE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC
WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTNUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL RETURN TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SPREADING
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND CLOSER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE....MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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