Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231112
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST THU APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...ALONG
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO ARIZONA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AN INCREASE IS
FORECAST BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...A FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY DESPITE THE WARMING ALOFT. MODELS AND MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DIVE
INTO ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS STORM WILL BE COLDER AND
LIKELY WETTER...AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
TROUGH IS NOT CERTAIN YET...SO FORECAST SNOW LEVELS AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS COULD STILL CHANGE...STAY TUNED.

A STRONG RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK...WITH A DRAMATIC WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK...NEAR 70 IN THE MOUNTAINS...80S/90S LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLD / SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN 19Z-01Z...ISOLD TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A BROAD...WEAK TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENS...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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