Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032252
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM MST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH GUSTY
WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
INCREASING WINDS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTED BY MID MORNING AND HAS
PERSISTED. MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS BEEN NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM...OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER HIGH-BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT
(52 MPH AT WINSLOW, 44 MPH AT ST. JOHNS). MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER, AFTER MIDNIGHT RAIN CHANCES START TO INCREASE
AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
LIKELY TO IMPORT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY, AND COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT FROM THE LOW AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WE SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FROM
THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
A SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY, CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0.20 TO 0.60
INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GREATLY DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA. LONGER TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW, THE MAIN EFFECTS
ARE LIKELY TO BE CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
WINDS. RIGHT NOW, FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST AND WINDIEST DAY.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST IN NW ARIZONA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 06Z AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM TO SEE SCT-BKN CU/TCU/CB WITH BASES FROM 5-8KFT AGL
AND SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. FAIR WEATHER
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE THROUGH 12Z MON. AFT 12Z...-SHRA AND ISOLD
-TSRA DEVELOP OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY WITH AREAS OF MVFR. THESE
CONDITIONS TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

FIRE WEATHER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EXCEED 40 MPH BOTH THIS EVENING AND MONDAY.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRYING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. 20 FOOT WINDS SPEEDS TO INCREASE THOUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE DISTRICT.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION....DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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