Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230324
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
810 PM MST WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...ALONG
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THIS WEEKEND IS LOOKING
SHOWERY AND COLD...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION 330 PM...AN ELONGATED TROUGH OFF THE SW CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO ARIZONA BY THURSDAY. THIS
WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN OUR AIRMASS AND INCREASE CONVECTIVE EFFICIENCY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY...ESPECIALLY BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN EXIT THE REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH HGHTS RISING
SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS AND MODEL TRENDS ARE NOW INDICATING
THAT A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS STORM WILL BE MUCH COLDER AND WETTER AND MAY BRING
SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEEKEND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. SOME AREAS ALONG THE RIM AND THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...STAY TUNED.

A STRONG RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK...WITH A DRAMATIC WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLD / SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 19Z THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENS...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........41 / PETERSON
AVIATION.......41/ BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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