Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 022241
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 PM MST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS
OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES...AND THIS IS WHERE ALL OF THE LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
SO FAR. GUSTY WINDS/LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ACTIVITY...
THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MTNS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL COOL UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
FURTHER INCREASING INSTABILITY AND CAUSING GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH...NEAREST
THE LOW...WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING ANYWHERE FROM 0.20 TO
0.50 INCHES OF RAIN. POPS WERE RAISED TO THE 50-70 PERCENT
RANGE MONDAY FOR THESE AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GREATLY DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA. LONGER TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE REGION
IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN EFFECTS WOULD
LIKELY BE GUSTY WINDS, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
NW ARIZONA. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES AOA
15KFT MSL THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF A KPRC-KSAD LINE.
TIL 02Z SUN WIDESPREAD HIGH BASED CONVECTION CONTINUE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH WIDESPREAD VIRGA OR -SHRA AND ISOLD -
TSRA. SFC WIND GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR THE DEEPER CONVECTION.
AFT 02Z...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH. AFT 17Z SUN...HIGH BASED
AND SCATTERED -SHRA / ISOLD -TSRA NORTH OF A KCMR-KSAD
LINE...SIMILAR TO TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. ON
SUNDAY...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
AS A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHES OUR AREA. DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS....GUSTS TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE DUE TO CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ACROSS
ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT A COOLING TREND AND AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR YAVAPAI AND MOST OF COCONINO COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NORTHLAND ON
THURSDAY BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


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