Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201018
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DELIVER COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
BUT ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. FOR
TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER...OVER THE WHITE
AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. WIND GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS. EVEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE
THREAT OF EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR ZERO. AN APPROACHING WEAK LOW
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALL-AND-ALL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN LOW. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK
OVER THIS PERIOD.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RESULTING INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING BACK OVER
ARIZONA. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG/EAST OF A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW LINE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
UP TO 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO WESTERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY...SPREADING
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A
COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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