Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 060435
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 PM MST TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MOSTLY FAIR AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP SHOWER CHANCES FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. LEFT HIGHER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW
ROCK LINE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. A LARGE SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY CONVECTION IN
UTAH EARLIER HAS ALSO ENTERED FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA, AND NEW STORMS
ARE FIRING ALONG IT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY 0.10" TO
0.25" PRECIPITATION TOTALS REPORTED FROM THE QUICKLY-MOVING SHOWERS
TODAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE REINFORCED BY A LOW
DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THE RELATIVELY DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARIZONA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW
BOTTOMS OUT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MIDWEEK WILL BECOME WINDY ON FRIDAY...AS
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH APPROACHES...AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THE FLOW WITHIN THE TROUGH DOES NOT HAVE THE
BEST TRAJECTORY TO TO TAP MUCH MOISTURE...IT IS ADEQUATE TO BRING A
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SWEEPING THE LOW
ACROSS ARIZONA ON SATURDAY...WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY...AND A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE TONIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED IFR WILL BE FOUND IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN FG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BTWN 06Z-
15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFT 15Z WEDS WITH SFC WINDS SW
10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER... DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ASSURED FRIDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TO ALL THE AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. DRIER WEATHER MOVES
IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/BAK
AVIATION....MAS
FIRE WEATHER...DL



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