Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 021152
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
450 AM MST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS
OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS A LITTLE MORE MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A LITTLE COOLER ALOFT TODAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE RESULTING INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE QUITE
DRY...SO MUCH OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS FROM THESE STORMS WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THIS MEANS THE BEST CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL COOL UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND CAUSING GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH...NEAREST
THE LOW...WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING ANYWHERE FROM 0.20 TO
0.50 INCHES OF RAIN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GREATLY DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. LONGER TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION
LATE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN DEBRIS CLOUD WITH
BASES AOA 12KFT THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z-20Z...AREAS OF HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF KFLG.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA IN THESE AREAS. HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BASES
DOWN TO 5-7KFT AGL...WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING. DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT A COOLING TREND AND AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD. DESPITE THIS...MOST AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER ONLY A LOW
POSSIBILITY OF ANY WETTING RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION....PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


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