Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260508
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1008 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN 7000-7500 FEET ALL EVENING. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW.

CONTINUE TO THINK THAT SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD TOTAL BETWEEN ONE AND
FOUR INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS 7000 FEET AND HIGHER...WITH MUCH HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE EVENING WORDING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
FRESHENED UP GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /655 PM MST/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS
GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINAL
AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR
KINW-KPRC-KPGA-KSEZ THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP NEAR
KINW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......TM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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