Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
AXUS75 KFGZ 051948
DGTFGZ
AZZ004>007-010-011-039-040-202300-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1245 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS EASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...

SYNOPSIS...

IN THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED MARCH 5TH, DROUGHT CONDITIONS
HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY, DUE TO A SERIES OF WET STORM SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE AFFECTED NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE END OF FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF OF MARCH. AREAS OF NORTHWEST COCONINO
COUNTY AND APACHE COUNTY HAVE IMPROVED FROM EXTREME DROUGHT (D3)
TO SEVERE DROUGHT (D2). ALSO, THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AREA
INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF HAS IMPROVED FROM MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
THE ABNORMALLY DRY CATEGORY (D0).

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

LATEST WATER YEAR 2014-15 PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

                OCT 1 2014 - MAR 5 2015   DEPARTURE FROM   PERCENT
                 OBSERVED PRECIPITATION        NORMAL       NORMAL

WINDOW ROCK AZ            5.02"                +0.44"        110%
GRAND CANYON AIRPORT AZ   4.16"                -3.24"         56%
GRAND CANYON NORTH RIM    8.18"                -4.67"         64%
FLAGSTAFF AZ             12.73"                +2.84"        129%
PRESCOTT AZ               7.13"                -0.13"         98%

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR
MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE ODDS ARE ALSO TILTED
SLIGHTLY IN FAVOR OF A CONTINUATION OF WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
A WEAK EL NINO HAS DEVELOPED. HOWEVER, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS EL
NINO WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THIS WINTER AND INTO THE SPRING.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

DUE TO LOW SNOWPACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON, SPRING SNOWMELT RUNOFF
IS LIKELY TO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. THIS COULD AFFECT
STREAMFLOW AND THE RECHARGE OF AQUIFERS AND RESERVOIRS IN THAT AREA.
SNOWPACK AND RESERVOIR CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST IN COCONINO AND
YAVAPAI COUNTIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENTS FROM THIS OFFICE ARE NORMALLY ISSUED
ON THE THIRD THURSDAY OF EACH MONTH IN WHICH EXTREME OR EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D3-D4) EXIST IN A PORTION OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL DROUGHT STATEMENT ISSUED UNLESS EXTREME
DROUGHT CONDITIONS RETURN TO A PORTION OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
NWS FORECAST OFFICE FLAGSTAFF...WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV /REQUIRES WWW./
ARIZONA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DROUGHT PROGRAM...
AZWATER.GOV/AZDWR/STATEWIDEPLANNING/DROUGHT
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...WRCC.DRI.EDU
USGS WATER RESOURCES OF THE UNITED STATES...WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS COMPILED FROM A MULTITUDE
OF FEDERAL...STATE...AND LOCAL AGENCIES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - FLAGSTAFF
POB 16057
BELLEMONT, AZ 86015
928-556-9161
W-FGZ.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

WFO FLAGSTAFF - JJ





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