Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 182128
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MUCH NEEDED PRECIP OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE FRONT PLAINS WHILE CYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP IN MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS
FLOW STARTS IN NERN WY AND THE PLUME REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SAN JUANS. SNOW AND RAIN HAS FALLEN MUCH OF THE DAY UNDER THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD SO NO CHANGES THERE. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SRN CANADA IS TRAILING A TROUGH THAT IS
CAUSING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO KEEP MOVING EWRD. THE REASON
THIS IS HAPPENING SO SLOWLY IS THE LACK OF ANY STRONG JET FEATURES
TO REALLY GET THIS SYSTEM MOVING. EVEN SO...THE CLOUD SHIELD/PLUME
WILL BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA AS THE ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS EAST. BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIP WILL FAVOR THE NRN AND CENTRAL
MTNS ALONG WITH THE FLATTOPS DUE TO THEIR FAVORABLE LOCATION SO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE UP THERE. THE REST OF THE
CWA MAY SEE AN ODD SHOWER OR TWO BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT.

BY SUNDAY...THE CANADIAN LOW WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
MINNESOTA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACNW. THIS WILL
CAUSE OUR CWA TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. WEAK
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NW POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME
PRECIP FOR THE CWA. THE GFS HIGHLIGHTING TWO DISTINCT WAVES...ONE
SUNDAY EVENING AND ANOTHER MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM12 ONLY SHOWING
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AT BEST WITH SOME CONVECTION THROWN IN. THE
HRRR AND RAP SHOWING MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. THIS ALL
MEANS UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH MUCH MORE DEFINITIVE
BREAKS BETWEEN DISTURBANCES.  FORECAST BRINGS MOSTLY BENIGN
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM
MIDAFTERNOON ONWARDS...MAINLY FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

TEMPS WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY TOMORROW THOUGH STILL REMAIN 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UNSETTLED NW FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN EMBEDDED WAVE
SHOULD FOCUS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPORARY RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA BY THU
MORNING. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND THE
SRN CA LIFTS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS/DESERT SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI MORNING. TIMING AND TRACK A BIT DIFFERENT BETWEEN MODELS
BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE NEXT WEEK. BOOSTED POPS FOR THU AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRI OVER THE BLENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY. ECWMF MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT DIGS A PAC NW TROUGH TO THE SRN GREAT BASIN BY
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA. GFS DROPS SOME ENERGY FROM THE PAC NW TROUGH DOWN THE WEST
COAST BUT SENDS MORE OF IT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS UT/CO. WILL FOLLOW THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIP STREAM DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. KCNY AND
KVEL...AND KDRO WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
OVER THE FRONT RANGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD. REMAINING TAF
SITES WILL SEE THE PRECIP AND CIGS THROUGH 06Z WITH CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER THAT. OCCNL LULLS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER. ALL
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED TODAY. NO CONCERNS WITH WINDS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ009-010-
     012-017-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ003-
     004-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR


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