Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 220836
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
236 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

A PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWEST COMES ASHORE TODAY FORCING THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKLY PHASES WITH
THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND ALSO MOVES INLAND. IN RESPONSE TO THE
PATTERN SHIFT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER THE
REGION CAUSING LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING IS
ADDED TO THE EQUATION.

EXPECT THE USUAL DOWNTURN IN MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT...THOUGH
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER NORTHEAST
UTAH MAY SUSTAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS LATE
INTO THE NIGHT. THE PATTERN EVOLVES LITTLE ON THURSDAY SO EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY/S. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC FORCING WEAKER SO
PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH ALMOST THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SW WILL OPEN UP AS
IT APPROACHES OUR CWA AND WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED PRECIP BRIEFLY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DYING DOWN DUE TO LACK OF HEATING AND ANY
REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER SRN CO
FRIDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH BETTER COVERAGE
AND AMTS. UNFORTUNATELY...BETTER AMTS IS SUBJECTIVE AND FORECAST
QPF AMTS OF .1 TO .3 INCHES ISN`T THAT GREAT ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
VERY DRY AREAS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR IT BEING MORE WIDESPREAD.

MODELS KEEP PRECIP IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE PACNW. BEFORE THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THOUGH...PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP
LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FROPA HAPPENING FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH
WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE PICTURE. TO THAT END...SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN FINALLY...THE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AS MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT POSING NO THREAT TO
AVIATION. A DISTURBANCE IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH THOUGH WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER DOWN SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
STARTING FROM 18Z ONWARDS WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 21Z. INCLUDED
VCSH AND VCTS TO A FEW TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH MOST DEVELOPMENT DYING DOWN QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. NO MENTION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS BELOW VFR IN TAFS THOUGH
POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST IF ANY AERODROMES GET A STORM OR SHOWER
OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ATTM SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 35 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER
STORMS/SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR



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