Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 061033
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
433 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...
CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO
DRIFT EWRD. WHILE THE AXIS OF SAID TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE COLORADO
PLAINS...ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY IS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND WILL
KEEP PRECIP GOING FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS BEING BORNE
OUT BY LOCAL OBS REPORTING -RA FROM PAGOSA SPRINGS AND DURANGO UP
INTO TELLURIDE AND FARTHER NORTH INTO ASPEN...RIFLE AND AS FAR
NORTH AND WEST AS VERNAL UT. MODELS WERE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE TO
COVERAGE FROM NOW THROUGH DAYBREAK TODAY WHEN THE BULK OF PRECIP
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE SRN VALLEYS AND SAN JUANS AND SERN UT. ONCE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...SOME DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN WORK ON THE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING SOME STORMS AND SHOWERS TO FORM AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS SO A RETURN TO THE MORE
HIGHER TERRAIN...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LOOKS A SAFE BET
THROUGH SUNSET.

BY LATE TONIGHT...MOST PRECIP WILL END THOUGH A FEW VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY HUG THE MTNS. FOR THURSDAY...A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA WHILE MUCH OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO REMAINS IN A DRY SLOT. MODELS
HINTING AT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS GENERALLY
WITH LITTLE ELSE ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN USUAL BUT RETURN TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE REMAINS TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND THAN 24 HOURS
PRIOR...AND BOTH INDICATED THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
FOUR CORNERS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BRINGING AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE WRAPPED SYSTEM
DRIFTS TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY HERALDING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LESS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WARMING CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS AS FLOW AGAIN SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

A NUMBER OF AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBY THROUGH 18Z AS THE VESTIGES OF THE PACIFIC STORM
WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY LINGER OVER THE REGION. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY FOR AIRPORTS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA.
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS.

DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WHILE COOLING
STABILIZES THE AIRMASS RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
DURING THE NIGHT...FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT
AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ENJOY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL


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