Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 221802
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1202 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

STRETCHED SHORT WAVE THAT CUTS ACROSS SRN UTAH INTO THE SW
COLORADO CORNER WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. VERTICAL MOTION IS WEAK
WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THIS EQUATES TO
LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...IN PARTICULAR THE SAN JUANS
AND ELK MOUNTAINS. QPF AMOUNTS MOSTLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS. LOWERED
AFTERNOON TEMPS A NOTCH DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL BE SPREADING INTO SW COLORADO AND
SHOWERS WILL BE DONE. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NW COLORADO
MAY PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO...BUT WILL END BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

A PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWEST COMES ASHORE TODAY FORCING THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKLY PHASES WITH
THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND ALSO MOVES INLAND. IN RESPONSE TO THE
PATTERN SHIFT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER THE
REGION CAUSING LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING IS
ADDED TO THE EQUATION.

EXPECT THE USUAL DOWNTURN IN MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT...THOUGH
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER NORTHEAST
UTAH MAY SUSTAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS LATE
INTO THE NIGHT. THE PATTERN EVOLVES LITTLE ON THURSDAY SO EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY/S. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC FORCING WEAKER SO
PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH ALMOST THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SW WILL OPEN UP AS
IT APPROACHES OUR CWA AND WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED PRECIP BRIEFLY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DYING DOWN DUE TO LACK OF HEATING AND ANY
REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER SRN CO
FRIDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH BETTER COVERAGE
AND AMTS. UNFORTUNATELY...BETTER AMTS IS SUBJECTIVE AND FORECAST
QPF AMTS OF .1 TO .3 INCHES ISN`T THAT GREAT ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
VERY DRY AREAS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR IT BEING MORE WIDESPREAD.

MODELS KEEP PRECIP IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE PACNW. BEFORE THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THOUGH...PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP
LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FROPA HAPPENING FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH
WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE PICTURE. TO THAT END...SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN FINALLY...THE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AS MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW -TSRA WILL OCCUR OVER WRN COLORADO
THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER NW
COLORADO TONIGHT AND END BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. EXPECT G25KT TO
ACCOMPANY ANY NEARBY -SHRA THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS MAY FALL BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS AT KASE KEGE AND KRIL FROM PASSING SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN
TOPS MAY BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...PF


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