Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 300539
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1139 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHING INTO NE UT/NW CO BY MORNING. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE 700 MB THERMAL
RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

A STREAM OF H5 VORTICITY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING
CLOUDINESS TO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS AND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS THE ENERGY STREAMS
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE. A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WILL OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY PASSES. A PASSING SHALLOW COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US ROCKIES WILL LEAVE AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED PIECE OF WEAK
ENERGY JUST NORTH OF UTAH AND COLORADO BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL END AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING BUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER NE UTAH AND NW
COLORADO DUE TO THE SLIGHT FORCING MECHANISM IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

FRIDAY...THE ENERGY JUST NORTH OF UTAH AND COLORADO WEAKENS AND
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING WESTERLY FLOW IN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION AGAIN. DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EXPECTED
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TREKKING EAST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING BY MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED
TO BRING ENERGY AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE FOUR CORNERS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE PARTICULARLY
ACTIVE WITH A CLOSED LOW PERFECTLY SITUATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AND WESTERN COLORADO FOR HEALTHY AVAILABLE ASCENT FOR POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE BEING 6 DAYS
OUT...SOME DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY. RELATIVELY STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES MAY TRIGGER
HIGH BASED ISOLATED -TSRA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. -TSRA COULD FORM
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY NEAR KASE AND KTEX. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF


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