Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 060529
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A MORE STRATIFORM NATURE THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE CONVERGING ON THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF WESTERN CO...MAINLY THE ELK AND GORE RANGES...AND THE
SOUTHERN FLATTOPS AND NORTHERN GRAND MESA. ALSO THERE HAD NOT
BEEN ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN OUR CWA FOR AWHILE...BUT JUST AS I
BEGIN TO WRITE THIS UPDATE A STRIKE WAS RECORDED NORTHEAST OF
CORTEZ. EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING...EXCEPT
FOR A STRIKE OR 2 IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SO REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING`S GRIDS AFTER 9 PM MDT. OTHERWISE
ONLY MADE SOME MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...BASED ON PRESENT
COVERAGE AND EXPECTED TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. THE CLOUD SHIELD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS HINDERED DEEP CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ABOUT 9 PM. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WED MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH BRIEF RIDGING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE FROM
SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY. WED NGT THE RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTH AND A
DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AS THE NEXT STRONG LOW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE LAS VEGAS
VICINITY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH PRECIP FOCUSING MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MAIN PUSH OF THE DRY SLOT WILL MIGRATE
EAST AND MOISTURE WILL AGAIN START INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
PRECIP SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT AFTERNOON. SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER SHOULD PASS EAST INTO EASTERN
CO WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING BENEATH THE NW QUADRANT OF THE
STORM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST
DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND INTO WEDNESDAY
PROPER. PLENTY OF MVFR CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z OR SO WHEN CLOUDS WILL LIFT SOMEWHAT. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SO MVFR REMAINS POSSIBLE THOUGH DO EXPECT
MOST TAF SITES TO SEE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE FOR SRN AREAS INCLUDING KCEZ...KDRO...KPSO AS SHOWERS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
LIKELY BRING MORE CONVECTION TO THE REGION SO STORMS AND SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...DYING DOWN BY SUNSET. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM OR DRIFT OVER TAF SITES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS BRINGING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR BEFORE QUICKLY
RETURNING TO VFR.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM/CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR



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