Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 041626 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KGYX 1226 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL MAKE THE WEATHER INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... 1220 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. I ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES AND INGESTED THE 16Z MESONET INTO HOURLY GRIDS. PREV DISC... 1010 AM...THIS ESTF UPDATE FEATURES ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST MESONET. PREV DISC... A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND +12C SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 80S OVER THE REST OF THE INTERIOR AREAS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER DUE TO DEVELOPING SEABREEZES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDCOAST AREAS. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND ANY QPF FROM THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY MORNING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND MIXING A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. TUESDAY BRINGS A RETURN TO SUNNY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD WITH DOWNSLOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A WEST GRADIENT WIND TO PREVENT ANY SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST SO THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL MODELS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME HUNG UP ALONG OR NEAR THE MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER. THIS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS AN OUTLIER DEPICTING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TOWARDS OUR REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS IN POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AND FOG ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS/SEAS TO REACH MINIMUM SCA CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME. CONDITIONS DIMINISH ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS TO FALL TO NEAR 25 PERCENT OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF NH AND ME AND CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 OR 15 MPH. BOTH OF THESE CRITERIA ARE MARGINAL AND NOT QUITE REACHING RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT DRY AIR COULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED. THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY. AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014. NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>009- 011-012-015. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152. && $$ ES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.