Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 010748 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 348 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO MOST OF THE AREA AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT... SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY IN SPITE OF A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT AND CAUSE WINDS TO GUST UP TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO COASTAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE LOW 40S ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
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AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT... BRINGING NEARLY CALM WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS BY MORNING WHICH WOULD LIMIT COOLING SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE. SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 20S. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY... A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY TRANSPORT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. A WARM FRONT WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF IT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE NAM AND REGIONAL PLACE THIS FRONT FURTHER NORTH FROM FAR NORTHERN COOS COUNTY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY IN MAINE. AS A RESULT... THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE NORTH OF THIS LINE. COURSER RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM GRAFTON COUNTY NEW HAMPSHIRE TO THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE WITH A MUCH BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD NORTH OF IT. FOR THIS FORECAST HAVE DECIDED TO FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE FURTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S. BUT TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. EARLY MORNING COLD AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY STARTS OUT AS SNOW IN THE LATE MORNING BUT TRANSITIONS TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN FINALLY RAIN ONCE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.2 INCHES ON THURSDAY SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT... KEEPING NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE COLDER NORTHERN VALLEYS. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT`S LOWS TO OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AND NEGLIGIBLE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S EASILY AREAWIDE WITH LOWER 60S IN THE FAVORED WARM SPOTS. AFTER A WARM DAY FRIDAY... THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE COOLER. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS AND LINGERS OFF THE NH AND MAINE COAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON IT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING ENERGETIC COLD POOL. THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS ALONG COASTAL MAINE. THIS WOULD BRING RAIN TO THE COAST AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN BETWEEN. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH A QUICK SYSTEM MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH DAY 8 AS YET ANOTHER STORM SEEMS TO TAKE SHAPE ON IT. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. LONG TERM...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CRESTS OVER THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY. LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK AND THEN WAVES/WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>152-154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...KIMBLE SHORT TERM...KIMBLE LONG TERM...HANES

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