Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 020438 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1238 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 1235 AM...QUICK UPDATE FRO T/TD/SKY...MOSTLY JUST TWEAKING BASED ON CURRENT OBS. A FEW INLAND COASTAL LOCATIONS COULD FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING. PREVIOUSLY...WHERE CLOUDS WERE ABLE TO DISSIPATE TODAY THEY QUICKLY FILLED BACK IN WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS. THE SEA BREEZE KEPT THINGS CLEARER NEAR THE COAST OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT PROVIDES LIGHT WINDS AND WILL TEND TO BRING CLEARING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... THE MID LEVEL CUMULUS MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FINALLY ERODE TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY AREAS TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. SPRING FROST/FREEZE SEASON HAS BEGUN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SO ANY POTENTIAL FROSTS OR FREEZES FROM THIS POINT FORWARD WILL NEED A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING AS APPROPRIATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ENHANCED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SPILLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE. MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S WHILE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY REACH 70. ONSHORE FLOW/SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP IT COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO BETTER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER. BEING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH... THERE WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS AS WELL. AS A RESULT... TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS STAYING IN THE 40S AND NO THREAT OF A FREEZE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. A MINOR UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE DURING MID DAY. THIS MAY SET OFF SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT IT WILL COME TO AN END BY EVENING. A WARMER NIGHT IN STORE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING SO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. K INDEXES SUPPORT THIS THINKING ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER INDICES ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD MONDAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AS ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WIND DEVELOPS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE REGION. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EARLY ON SATURDAY OVER THE MAINE COAST LIKELY PUSHING INLAND TO AUGUSTA. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE MEANS WINDS WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS EXPECTED. LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL BELOW 40 PERCENT AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOONS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER...

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