Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 241529 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1129 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY. && 15Z UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY AND POPS GRIDS ALONG WITH A FEW TEMP TWEAKS. DOWNSLOPING PROVIDING SOME SUNNY BREAKS IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP AND NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING GOES ON. DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT LOW TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD MORE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 30S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY EVEN OVER COASTAL AREAS. ANY SHOWERS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER... IN THE 40S AND 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ALLOWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING THE LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. ALSO, SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC SYSTEM BUT TIMING OF ANY OF THESE WILL BE VERY TOUGH. WILL BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS KICKED FURTHER EAST ALLOWING A BRIEF REPRIEVE BY WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND SHOWERS PRIMARILY TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CALMING SEAS. LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MONDAY...AS WEAK SURFACE LOW MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE EXPECTED... COOL TEMPERATURES AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP FUELS DAMP FOR MOST AREAS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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