Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 050702 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KGYX 302 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... THE WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST BY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME SUNNY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD...EVEN ALONG THE COAST. MOST AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FOR A CHANGE SINCE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A NORTHWEST GRADIENT TO FEND OFF ANY SEABREEZES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A COOLER NIGHT EXPECTED DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. DUE TO THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WITH THE DRY AIR MASS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE 70S AFTER A COOL START. ALONG THE COAST AFTERNOON SEABREEZES CAN ONCE AGAIN BE EXPECTED SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE MORNING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. 00Z MODEL SUITE THEN DEPICTS THE FORMATION OF A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE SURPRESSING ANY WARM AIR ADVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...MOVING UP THE SAINT RIVER VALLEY. IN ANY CASE...THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FOG...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. THERE COULD BE CONVECTION WITH A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS PLENTY OF WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...AND A POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP AROUND THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...A SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM OVER THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... TODAY... A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS TODAY AND SIGNIFICANT MIXING WILL ALLOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE COMBINED WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS TODAY WARRANTED THE RED FLAG WARNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY SO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. ANYONE CONSIDERING OUTSIDE BURNING SHOULD MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS WELL AS LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE BURNING. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028. NH...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>015. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150- 152. && $$

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