Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240112 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 912 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHEAST AND MARITIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNINGS WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOST AFTERNOONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 9PM UPDATE... SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY COME TO AN END...ONLY ONES REMAINING ARE OVER PENOBSCOT BAY. IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT QUICKER. 615 PM UPDATE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WHEELS OVERHEAD. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT OOZ BEFORE WINDING DOWN. THE AREAS WHERE SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NRN NH AND THE WRN ME MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE MIDCOAST NORTHWARD UP THROUGH SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY. ELEWHERE...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...THEN CLOUD IN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. PREVIOUSLY... FORECAST BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE IN THE NORTHEAST AS COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. CUTOFF LOW WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ANY MORNING SUNNY BREAKS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND LINGERS OVER THE NERN CONUS AND ERN CANADA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS BLOCKS SET UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPSTREAM OVER WRN NOAM. IN A SENSE...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST SIMPLE...AS IT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO GENERATE INSTABILITY SHRA EVEN GIVEN SMALL AMTS OF SUN...WHICH WE SHOULD SEE MOST MORNINGS. SO DAYS START OFF WITH SOME SUN...WITH SCT SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOME CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 2 POSSIBLE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ON SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF TIMING THESE WAVES AROUND THE LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BEYOND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING 5-10 F BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAYS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AT NIGHT...GIVEN PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE. THE 12Z EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ON WED...AND BACKED OFF TO SLT CHC POPS THEN. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS SAT THRU TUE...BUT PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. COULD SEE MORE OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AROUND MON NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z. LONG TERM...THE WATERS REMAIN QUIET SAT THRU MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TUE...AND S WINDS WILL INCREASE...NEARING SCA LVLS. && .FIRE WEATHER... COOL DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CURTIS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...

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