Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 061405 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KGYX 1005 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH. WITH FRONT STALLED NEAR THE AREA SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1000 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. OTHER THAN THAT THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ONCE AGAIN THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL GUARANTEE THAT MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE 70S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL OCCUR BY NOON BEFORE SOME LOCAL SEABREEZES KICK IN AND DROP THE TEMPERATURES ABRUPTLY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THURSDAY THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS STATIONARY SO MORE OF THE SAME EXCEPT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS H85 TEMPERATURES REACH +10C TO +12C BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON LIGHT WEST WINDS. ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL BE CLEARLY FELT KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN AFTER REACHING THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THE ECMWF MODEL ISN`T AS AGGRESSIVE AND KEEPS THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH EITHER FORECAST, EXPECT SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT MODELS TRACK THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE EVENTUAL TRACK COULD IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR. LONG TERM...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN BE INCREASING THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MAINE. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH RH VALUES REACHING 20-25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING. ANYONE CONSIDERING OUTSIDE BURNING SHOULD MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS WELL AS LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE BURNING. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014-019>022-024>028. NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...KISTNER

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